Mogadishu (PP Commentary) — On 15 May 2026, the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Dr Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, reflected on the sticking points in the talks with his opponents, a group of Mogadishu-based politicians who misleadingly describe themselves as the opposition despite opposing a political system in which political parties play a central role in competing for the privilege of governing the country for a fixed period.
“When they insisted on a return to indirect elections, I proposed a new settlement in which we, the stakeholders, would amend the Constitution to institutionalise the 4.5 power-sharing system and indirect elections in order to avoid further controversy. They rejected this proposal as well,” said President Mohamud.
The process of amending Somalia’s Provisional Constitution is enshrined within the Constitution itself. Consultations precede amendments of such magnitude and significance, followed by a vote on the proposed amendments in the bicameral legislature, comprising Members of Parliament and Senators.
The post-state-collapse governance experiments since 2000 have produced a Somali political class with a bias towards action. Somalia’s federal system was first proposed by Puntland in 1998 and formally adopted at the Kenya-sponsored Somali Reconciliation Conference in 2004. Puntland’s sustained advocacy for federalism from 2010 onwards proved decisive, leading to the conclusion of the transitional period in 2012, the establishment of a permanent federal government and the formation of new Federal Member States.
The local government elections piloted in three districts in Puntland nearly four years ago, followed by the 2023 local government elections held across many districts in Puntland, demonstrate that transforming a political system from clan-based selection to one in which citizens elect their representatives requires commitment and clarity.
The 2025 local government elections in Mogadishu and the 2026 concurrent parliamentary and presidential elections in South West State proved that democratic momentum cannot be reversed.
One-person, one-vote presidential elections are expected to take place in Hirshabelle and Galmudug, alongside local government elections in North East State of Somalia.
The Council for the Future of Somalia lacks the political base necessary to advocate its parochial political interests rooted in the legacy of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (2007–2009). Why is the President of Puntland State of Somalia endorsing the Council’s objectives when Puntland itself remains isolated after withdrawing from the National Consultative Council in 2023 and failing to comply with fiscal federalism commitments requiring the declaration of revenues?
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the former President of Somalia, recently made veiled threats against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The Mudulood traditional leaders rejected those threats and vowed to restrain him should he resort to violent rhetoric again.
Twenty years ago, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was the public face of the Islamic Courts Union and is remembered for sending hundreds of young men to the front lines on the outskirts of Baidoa when the Islamic Courts attempted to capture the city, which they viewed as a stronghold of “apostates and Ethiopia’s stooges”.
In 2016, when Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was asked what he knew about the Maritime Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2009 between Somalia and Kenya by the then Minister of Maritime Transport, Abdirahman Abdishakur, he replied: “Ask the Prime Minister who authorised the signing of the MoU and the Minister who signed it.” Yet only a week after the signing of the maritime MoU with Kenya, President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed granted an interview to the former VOA Somali Service in which he defended the “legality of the agreement”.
Indirect elections tend to produce a winner-takes-all administration that can only be challenged by politically accountable Federal Member States. When Federal Member States cooperate with a new federal administration and later fall out with it over disputes affecting incumbent Federal Member State’s electoral goals, as happened in Jubaland in 2024 and South West State in 2026, or when a Federal Member State president’s policies fail to align with those of the Federal Government in Mogadishu and cooperation with the centre gets withdrawn, as in the case of Puntland, ordinary Somali citizens remain victims of maladministration at the periphery rather than at the centre.
The case for federalism in Somalia remains strong so long as commitment to decentralisation and political accountability within the Federal Member States continues to serve as a core governance principle. Fiscal federalism reveals which Federal Member States are led by politicians who honour their commitments and which are not. One-person, one-vote elections will uproot a political class that combines religious fanaticism with clan-based extremist politics. The path back to indirect elections in Somalia is irrevocably closed.
© Puntland Post, 2026