Mogadishu (Commentary) — The Consultative Forum Summit being presided over by Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud kicked off in Mogadishu earlier today. A key agenda in the summit is the term extension for Jubaland and South West State Presidents. The Jubaland term extension did not result in opposition similar to the one occasioned by the South West State Parliament. Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed was an ally of Somalia President against the term extension for the former Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed.
Villa Somalia did not explicitly manage to foment opposition to term extension for Jubaland presidency, but NISA Director Mohad Salad paid a visit to Gedo to re-establish ties with Gedo region administration opposed to Jubaland leadership, a move interpreted by one analyst as “an attempt to breathe life into Juba Valley Alliance that once controlled Kismayo.”
President Mohamud cannot table the South West State term extension as an agenda to be discussed without equally mentioning the Jubaland precedent. The possible option for Villa Somalia is to turn a blind a eye to Jubaland and South West State term extensions in line with the “non-interference” policies he advocated as an opposition politician between 2019 and 2022, and shortly after President Abdiaziz Laftagareeen was elected the President of South West State.
President Mohamud seeks to capitalize on the war on Al-shabaab and the mobilization of his clan’s militias to expand the writ of the federal government by introducing martial law in areas once controlled by Al-shabaab. Without a deal with South West State , the plan to stabilize Lower Shabelle, a region prized by armed powerful militias allied with the government, will face formidable setbacks. The other option for President Mohamud is to persuade the South West opposition group led by Sharif Hassan, the former President of the South West State, to accept the term extension and prepare for elections.
President Mohamud backed the 2019 Jubaland elections organized by Jubaland election body and criticized the federal government “interference”. He will find it hard to argue for a role for the federal government in elections at Federal Member States.
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