Pro-Change Coalition Elusive in Somalia as Federal States Pursue Divergent Goals

**President Said Abdullahi Deni called for for reversal of constitutional amendments and disqualification of Somaliland MPs, and is wary of pre-election deals with the “opposition.”**

Kismaayo (PP News Desk) — In 2022, the President of Jubaland State of Somalia, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, skilfully outmanoeuvred Puntland’s President, Said Abdullahi Deni, his former ally, to secure the premiership for the incumbent Prime Minister, Hamsa Abdi Barre. Under the 2022 electoral model, Federal Member States were empowered to select federal MPs and Senators. The Presidents of Puntland and Jubaland unilaterally chose who would represent their regions in the bicameral legislature in Mogadishu.

Both leaders had joined the 2021 opposition bloc Badbaado Qaran (National Salvation), which had rejected the illegal term extension granted to the former federal government by the bicameral parliament in 2021. Now, with less than a year remaining in the term of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a loose opposition alliance known as the Salvation Council of Somalia has emerged. Its only unifying stance with Jubaland and Puntland appears to be the continued boycott of political consultations initiated by Villa Somalia.

Sharif Sheikh Ahmed , the Former President of Somalia and Chair of the Salvation Council, leads fragmented opposition bloc with limited cohesion; opposes federal electoral model empowering federal member state leaders to handpick MPs and Senators.

Jubaland supports amendments to the Provisional Constitution but insists that the Federal Government recognise the legitimacy of President Ahmed Madobe’s 2024 re-election by the Jubaland Parliament. Conversely, Puntland demands a reversal of the amendments, although it lacks the legal standing to challenge revisions made to the federal charter. Puntland’s constitution, ratified in 2012, contradicts several articles of the Provisional Constitution, which has formed the legal bedrock for post-transition Somalia since that year. Puntland also calls for the disqualification of MPs and Senators representing Somaliland. President Deni argued that their participation is illegitimate as long as the Somaliland administration maintains its l claim of unilateral secession made in 1991.

While Jubaland endorsed the constitutional amendments, it has since clashed with the Federal Government over the harmonisation of national and sub-national electoral calendars. It has yet to take a clear stance on Somaliland’s federal representation, an issue further complicated by Somaliland’s 2024 illegal MoU with Ethiopia, which prompted the Federal Government of Somalia to designate secession as a national security threat.

**Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe, the President of Jubaland State of Somalia backs constitutional amendments but insists on recognition of his 2024 re-election.**

Despite speculation, the prospect of a strategic pact between Puntland, Jubaland, and the Salvation Council remains remote. Former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke has noted that the Salvation Council doors not favour an electoral model akin to the 2022 framework, which granted Federal Member State leaders the power to select federal MPs and Senators.

The Presidents of Jubaland and Puntland appear wary of pre-election political deals that might be revoked post-election. Their ongoing disagreements with Villa Somalia reflect deeper structural tensions in Somalia’s maturing federal system, adopted two decades ago and tested since the end of the transitional period in 2012. This evolving governance architecture in Somalia has underpinned milestones such as debt relief and progress towards lifting the long-standing arms embargo.

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