Hargeisa (PP News Analysis) — The Somaliland Electoral Commission earlier today declared Abdirahman Abdullahi (Cirro) the winner of the 2024 Somaliland presidential elections. The elections this year were unique in the sense that the contest for the presidency coincided with competition for political associations to qualify as political parties. The UCID party, led by Faisal Ali Warabe, has been replaced by the Kaah political association, which will now become a political party. Unlike UDUB, founded in 2001 by the late Somaliland President Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, UCID did not disintegrate after losing presidential elections in 2010. UCID consistently underperformed in presidential elections, which many attribute to what a political journalist described as the “demagoguery of its leader.”
The Somaliland President-elect faces a host of economic, security and political challenges that his administration will inherit from the outgoing administration. Among these political challenges, the maritime Memorandum of Understanding is the most complex issue the new administration will have to address. Without asserting the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia, talks between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Somaliland administration will not resume. The Federal Government of Somalia has designated secession as a national security threat. Talks between Mogadishu and Hargeisa were premised on resolving political differences without assuming parallel sovereignties. Responsibility for representing sovereignty lies with Mogadishu. The signing of the maritime Memorandum of Understanding between the Somaliland administration and Ethiopia in January 2024 has resulted in strained relations between Somalia and Ethiopia. Subsequently, Ethiopia was excluded from the peacekeeping forces set to operate in Somalia from 2025.
Regarding the conflict in northern Somalia between Somaliland forces and the Sool, Sanaag, Cayn and Khaatumo (SSCK) Interim Administration, the stance of the new administration remains unclear. Somaliland justified its shelling of Las Anod in 2023 on the basis of its claim that it is a “republic,” despite later proposing a two-state solution as a ceasefire precondition when the UN Security Council called for the Somaliland administration to cease its shelling of Las Anod and withdraw its forces from the outskirts of Sool’s administrative capital.
Economically, youth unemployment and an unfavourable business environment are among the significant challenges the new administration faces. Somaliland businesses have relied largely on trade with the Puntland State of Somalia. The Las Anod conflict has affected the free movement of people and commodities between the two administrations. If the incoming administration can find ways to mitigate the multifaceted problems it will inherit, rather than exacerbating them, it may avoid the pitfalls that undermined the outgoing president of Somaliland’s administration, Muse Bihi Abdi.
© Puntland Post, 2024
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