Mogadishu (PP Editorial) — Thirty two years the state collapsed in Somalia. The primary cause of the state failure was a failure to plan for a violent regime change on the part or change-seekers. Somalia is awash with arms the military regime left behind supplemented by arms smuggled into Somalia by waring factions during 1990s and noughties.
The suggestion that lifting the arms embargo on Somalia will go a long way in defeating militant religious extremism ignores the exclusive nature of the Somali armed forces. There is no a national consensus on the security architecture proposed in London in 2017. In Northern Somalia a civil war is raging; the legacy of dispossessions and the plight of marginalised Somali social groups (aka the Fifth Clan) point to a commitment to upholding the ways of the warlords— fiefdoms ruled by clan militias in the state payroll.
Somalia is a country whose national government is deemed to be incapable of guaranteeing security in its territories. That is why the UN Secretary General António Guterres several times alluded to the global threat from Somalia to which ATMIS is responding.
Somalia is still a politically divided nation state. Parallel arms and paramilitaries operate in different regions. The solution to this security puzzle does not lie in sugarcoating political challenges that resulted from state collapse and remain unaddressed to date.
Some donor countries are promoting in Somalia a stealth return to warlordism to keep Somalia in perpetual dependency on ATMIS. The key requirements for lifting arms embargo on Somalia should include political consensus verifiable through objective assessments on important milestones such as inclusive security forces at federal government level and at sub-national entity level, and guidelines that make security forces less vulnerable to being misused by the incumbent leaders.
Without a political consensus on Somali security forces and how they operate, the distrust among political stakeholders will deepen. In such an atmosphere weapons and ammunitions will fall into the wrong hands. Much political legwork needs to be done before Somali political leaders entertain the idea of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia. The interest of the West to contain the threat of transnational terrorism should be aligned with the national interest of Somalia to protect Somalia citizens against politicians whose primary goal is to arm their clans for a possible second round of an internecine civil war. There is no a strong case for lifting the arms embargo on Somalia.
© Puntland Post, 2023
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