Enhanced Gulf Countries’ Role in Somalia Politics Portends Instability

By Adan M. Dawad

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government obliges people of Laascaanood to adhere to the unilateral ceasefire announces by Somaliland administration whose forces are shelling the administrative capital of Sool.

Mogadishu (Commentary) — The joint statement  signed by Qatar, Somalia, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America ends with a planned meeting to be held in Qatar “within the next three months for ongoing discussions and to take stock of progress.” It exposes the role of the Federal Government in the Laascaanood Conflict. The Federal Government of Somalia came out in support of the 6/2/2023 Laascaanood Declaration, but the joint statement alludes to a ceasefire announced unilaterally by Somaliland whose forces are shelling Laascaanood.

Other signatories of the joint statement can have a position on the ceasefire (unfair and biased though it is), but the Federal Government Somalia presenting two opposing views on the conflict brings dishonour to the highest office of Somalia. The joint statement downplays the plight of the politically marginalised Somali constituencies such as Banaadiri and Jareer, who are not numerically minorities, but citizens whose status in post-1999 Somalia was diabolically determined in the 2000 Djibouti-sponsored  reconciliation conference for Somalis.

Britain and USA, two countries that commit resources to state-building initiatives in Somalia, have  opted for a strategy that strengthens the roles of Qatar and UAE, two rival Gulf Cooperation Council members. UAE, through its parastatal DP World, backs its Somali partners who can help the oil-rich country to take control of Somali seaports. Qatar, a key backer of the former federal government, has been given a role in the new scramble for resources of Somalia.

What does Türkiye benefit from the new reconfiguration of the Somali geopolitical jigsaw?  Three NATO members that signed the joint statement on Somalia have hidden agendas to  weaken the sovereignty of Somalia by accentuating political and economic inequities. The priorities of the signatories and the national interest of Somalia are irreconcilable. Human rights is a phrase donors tweet to project moral superiority. No wonder many countries in the global south did not go along with the policies of the USA and UK to sanction Russia for invading Ukraine. Thirty years ago, America was a benevolent intervener in Somalia. Its engagement with Somalia in 2023 smacks of a divide and rule tactics that the war-weary country can hardly cope with.