Mogadishu (PP News Desk) — President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces two formidable foreign policy challenges for a country that, in the conventional sense of modern nation states, cannot formulate fully-fledged foreign policy due to its dependency on the protection of foreign peacekeeping forces.
Managing relations with neighbouring Ethiopia is the first foreign policy conundrum his adminstration will have to grapple with. During his first term of office (2012-2017) President Mohamud managed to enhance relations between the two countries through a bilateral agreement that allowed for the deployment of Ethiopian troops to help the Somali government forces against Al-shabaab. Closer relations with TPLF made this rapprochement possible: President Mohamud had visited Mekelle, donned a TPLF cap and waved the organisation’s flag to celebrate its reign before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
The former Somalia Federal Government under President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed sided with Ethiopia on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egyptian media reported that talks between President Mohamud and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi revolved around the dam which Egypt sees as a violation of global water commons agreements. During President Mohamud’s visit to Egypt Al-Shabaab attacked districts in the Somali region of Ethiopia. Ethiopia plans to set up a buffer zone to prevent infiltration by Al-shabaab, according to the President of Somali Region of Ethiopia Mustafa Omar.
President Mohamud endorsed the Horn of Africa Economic Integration to which his predecessor signed up, but has not publicly committed to upholding the Somalia government policy that does not question the right of Ethiopia to build a dam on the Nile river. His advisors urged him to make use of ambiguity in the form of foreign policy double-dipping by showing solidarity with Egypt over the dam in the hope that continuity with the economic integration agenda would assuage the fear of Ethiopia about a new government policy that emphasises neutrality or support for the Egyptian position on GERD.
The second foreign policy challenge pertains to the federal parliament’s ban of the UAE government-owned DP World, which manages Berbera and Boosaaso Ports under an agreement the Federal Government of Somalia deems illegal. If the incoming Federal Government of Somalia proposes the revocation of the ban, it will fall to the bicameral legislature to vote on a bill aimed to legalise agreements DP World separately signed with Puntland State and Somaliland Administration several years ago. The parliamentary ban did not prevent from DP World from investing in the expansion of Berbera Port, and the sale of a share of the Port project to the Ethiopian government. Without the input of key political stakeholders in Somalia, President Mohamud will struggle to devise a coherent policy that takes into account the limitations of the state-building endeavours.
© Puntland Post, 2022
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