What does Tigray want?

As Ethiopia’s civil war spreads out of Tigray, the government of Africa’s second-most populous nation is under increasing threat.

The northern region’s leaders are forming alliances with groups including a rebel army from the Oromo, the country’s biggest ethnic group — an ominous historical sign for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front overthrew the communist Derg regime in 1991 and dominated Ethiopian politics for the next 27 years.

This wasn’t what Abiy envisaged when he sent his army into Tigray 10 months ago. He promised a swift conflict in retaliation for an assault on an army base. But the TPLF has since regained control of the province and its forces are pushing into neighboring Amhara and Afar.

While their end-game is unclear, a repeat of 1991 seems unlikely. 

“They want a transitional government in Addis Ababa,” said Connor Vasey, an analyst at Eurasia Group. “We are a long way off saying this is a 1990s redux.”

What is clear is that Abiy’s campaign to centralize power in the capital is in tatters. With many regions seeking more devolution, the conflict threatens the integrity of the state, according to a key Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified citing the sensitivity of the matter.

Abiy’s authority is at serious risk unless he can find a way to force the Tigrayans back. The Nobel peace prize winner has awakened more enemies than just the TPLF.“We have one thing in common and that is we are fighting the same enemy,” said Kumsa Diriba, the commander-in-chief of the Oromo Liberation Army.

Source: Bloomberg